Cigarette use is related to the rates of both death from cancer and coronary heart disease (CHD) as you can see below. Examine the correlation in each case using the maps and graph tools.
1) Study the correlation between the percentage of adult smokers in 2019 and the rates per 100,000 population for cancer and CHD in 2021. Describe each relationship in your own words as simply as possible.
2) Determine the equations of the lines of best fit relating the percentage of adult smokers in 2016 and the rates per 100,000 population for cancer and CHD in 2021.
3) One of the benefits of equations like those you developed in #2 is that they can be used to make predictions. Use your equations to determine the death rates for cancer and CHD for each of the percentages of adult use in the table.
| % Adult Cigarette Use | Cancer Death Rate | CHD Death Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | ||
| 31 | ||
| 6 | ||
| 65 |
Consider the range of values in the original data for % Adult Cigarette Use. Are you more confidant about some of the results in the table above than others? Explain.
4) Explain in terms of the value of the correlation coefficient, r, why you might be more confident about the predictive results from one of your equations than from the other.
Smoking data from Current Cigarette Smoking Prevalence (%) Among Adults by State, (Atlanta: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2009. Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, 1984-2009), as found in Trends in Tobacco Use, (American Lung Association, July, 2011).
and from Current Cigarette Smoking Prevalence (%) Among Adults, 2019, (Atlanta: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2024.), downloaded July 22, 2024.
CHD and cancer related death data from Number of Deaths Due to Diseases of the Heart per 100,000 Population, 2021, (The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, 2021.), downloaded July 22, 2024.
and from Number of Cancer Deaths per 100,000 Population, 2021, (The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, 2021.), downloaded July 22, 2024.